Researchers use the WVU Planetarium to discuss astronomy and space. University astrophysicists say an asteroid heading toward Earth should not cause concern, according to the latest projections. (WVU Photo/Brian Persinger)
An asteroid spotted in late December 2024 caught astronomers’ eyes and simulations to determine possible orbits indicate the object could strike Earth in 2032, but West Virginia University researchers say, while the asteroid bears watching, its odds of hitting the planet are small and shouldn’t cause worry.
According to NASA, the object — which is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet long and named 2024 YR4 — presently has a greater than 1% chance of making contact with Earth.
Researchers Duncan Lorimer, Eberly Distinguished Chair for Academic Excellence in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the WVU Eberly College of Arts and Sciences, and Sarah Burke-Spolaor, associate professor of physics and astronomy and member of the WVU Center for Gravitational Waves and Cosmology, said the statistics offer perspective on the potential impact.
Quotes:
“I would say that a 1% chance of striking the Earth is higher than I would like. About one-third of the Earth’s surface is land, and only about one-half of that is deemed to be populated, so there’s something like one-sixth of a percent chance that this poses any threat to humans. That means that about one out of every 600 asteroids of this size could be problematic.
“That’s all statistics, of course. I’m not losing sleep right now. I am glad that agencies like NASA are funded to keep a close eye on near-earth objects. We definitely want to be keeping an eye out for this and other rocks out there.” — Duncan Lorimer, Eberly Distinguished Chair for Academic Excellence, Department of Physics and Astronomy, WVU Eberly College of Arts and Sciences
“If the asteroid did strike the planet, it would destroy an area of around 800 square miles. Our planet is exceedingly large, making it extremely unlikely that anyone would be within this blast zone if the asteroid hit. Considering the current measurements’ probability of impact and likely blast size at present, the chance of any person being directly in the blast zone is around 1 in 24,612,500. You’re about 3,000 more times likely to die in a car crash than to get hit by the asteroid, and about 300 times more likely to die falling down a flight of stairs, according to online statistics.
“Danger is all around us — in space, on Earth. This news seems alarming, but for now I’m going to worry 3,000 times less about the asteroid than about safe driving.” — Sarah Burke-Spolaor, associate professor of physics and astronomy, WVU Center for Gravitational Waves and Cosmology, WVU Eberly College of Arts and Sciences
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