Potential U.S. military action in Syria has Russia concerned about growing instability in the Middle East, says one West Virginia University political science professor.

“Russia has many interests in Syria,” said Boris Barkanov. “It is in close proximity to the region, and if the atmosphere worsens, things could spillover. Russia has a large Muslim population, and has experienced trouble with radical Islam, particularly in Chechnya.”

Barkanov was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian studies and now teaches classes on international relations and comparative politics at WVU. He devotes much of his research to Russian politics and foreign policy, and has been a close observer of U.S./Russian relations. Barkanov emigrated from the USSR at the age of 2 and grew up in Chicago.

With the U.S. recently considering military strikes in Syria – as a response to claims that Syrian troops killed 1,400 citizens in a chemical attack – Russian officials strongly urged the U.S. to seek a diplomatic solution instead.

“There’s a general concern about U.S. military actions,” Barkanov said. “They see a pattern of behavior, where the United States goes to war whenever there’s a political problem.”

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad denies his government gassed civilians and blames rebels for carrying out the attacks.

Over the weekend, the U.S. and Russia reached a compromise that would eliminate Syria’s chemical arsenal. Syria must submit a list of its chemical weapons stockpile while international inspectors will be in that country no later than November.

The New York Times recently published a letter from Russian President Vladimir Putin pleading with U.S. officials to first seek out a peaceful compromise. Putin stated that several countries and political and religious leaders, including the pope, oppose U.S. military action.

This does not mean that Russia supports the actions of the Syrian regime, Barkanov said.

“In Russia, there’s always some skepticism and public opposition to US military,” he said. “But at the same time, they’re not necessarily happy about Assad either. The question they ask is, ‘What comes after Assad? Continued instability? More civil war? A more extreme regime taking charge?’

“Russia wants to cooperate with the United States. They want a constructive relationship. But that doesn’t mean they’ll go along with everything the U.S. wants. They also are not afraid to argue that on certain things, they might know better.”

If the U.S. ignores these calls for diplomacy, it could strain relations, Barkanov added, but not too drastically.

“The U.S. is an essential partner for Russia,” he said. “I don’t foresee an explicit, dramatic change in relations. However, they could give more military aid to Assad.”

Barkanov is available to comment as an expert to media. He can be reached at bvbarkanov@mail.wvu.edu.

-WVU-

js/09/16/13

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