Dr. Brian Gerber knows the drill.

In the event of a terror attack in Washington, D.C. Gerber, an assistant professor of public administration at West Virginia University, says he knows what likely will happen.

Suburban residents will scurry to their cars and literally head for the hills and other places, he saysand one of those escape avenues would presumably take them right through West Virginias Eastern Panhandle, which nudges the Washington-Baltimore metro area.

How many?

Up to 7 million people, according to estimates from West Virginia military and emergency officials, and thats an exodus that would make for a catastrophe in its own right.

Gerber presented the findings of his study Wednesday (Aug. 23) to West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin and more than 100 public safety officials from across the region gathered in Davis, W.Va., for a conference.

Officials were also attending from the District of Columbia, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Kentucky.

The event was considered to be a first step toward creating a regional evacuation plan.

And Gerber told them all to get ready for the push, should the unthinkable happen.

Theres going to be some sort of large-scale self evacuation,Gerber said.This is a very real issue that should be addressed.

For the past several months, the professor has been doing just that. Gerbers study looks at the aftermath of an attack in Washingtonbe it by nuclear detonation,dirty bombor chemical weaponsand just what might happen as residents flee the menace.

What hes found so far, is that municipalities arent ready yet for an onslaught that could clog roadways while straining outreach services past the breaking point.

West Virginia, for example, could handle contingents of evacuees, Manchin said, but not if the numbers of them stack up into hundreds of thousands or millions.

A regional evacuation plan with constituent, uniform policies is the way to go, Gerber said, especially since theres a real fear among residents that just such an attack is imminent.

Gerber surveyed 800 people in West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland who told him it wasnt a matter ofIf,butWhen?And when that attack does occur, they said theyll get in their cars and trucks and go the other way.

The terror could take a tragic, ripple effect if no uniform plan is in place, Gerber said.If local governments are either unwilling or unable to be proactive, then the nation is more likely to suffer,he said.

For more information on the project, contact Gerber at brian.gerber@mail.wvu.edu or 304-293-2614, ext. 3154.